/ Recent content on Who will win Euro 2021? Hugo -- gohugo.io en-us © 2018. All rights reserved. Fri, 01 Jan 2021 00:00:00 +0000 /post/2021-05-27-daily_results/ Thu, 27 May 2021 22:00:00 +0000 /post/2021-05-27-daily_results/ Daily updates during Euro 2021 As always during the Euro 2021, the Norwegian Computing Center will daily consider the chances of every team participating in the championship, based on a probability model. Before FIFA 2021, the probability model is a synthesis of 15 football experts. As Euro 2021 progresses, the model is more and more governed by the actual matches and less and less from the experts. We present probabilities for each group, for the knockout stage and for who will win Euro 2021. /post/2021-05-13-daily_results/ Thu, 13 May 2021 14:34:00 +0000 /post/2021-05-13-daily_results/ On this page we will show the results from the games played in this group. We will also show the probabilities of home win, draw and away win for each of the games that has not yet been played. When a game has been played the obtained outcome will get a probability of 100 %. The current table for this group is based on the games that have been played. /about/ Fri, 01 Jan 2021 00:00:00 +0000 /about/ The Norwegian Computing Center The Norwegian Computing Center is a private, independent, non-profit foundation established in 1952. NR carries out contract research and development projects in the areas of information and communication technology and applied statistical modeling. SAMBA The FIFA 2021 model has been developed in the SAMBA department – Statistical Analysis, Machine Learning and Image Analysis. Responsible for web-page Håvard Goodwin Anders Løland Magne Aldrin /experts/ Fri, 01 Jan 2021 00:00:00 +0000 /experts/ Each team has its own strength number. Before Euro 2021, these are found from a synthesis of a set of football experts. Each expert has been given a unique set of 50 hypothetical matches and asked to fill out three equally likely outcomes of each match. As Euro 2021 progresses, the team strength is more and more decided by the actual matches and less and less from the experts. /finals/ Fri, 01 Jan 2021 00:00:00 +0000 /finals/ On this page we give the results from the second round — i.e. the games that already have been played. We also give the probability for home and away in the games where the contestants are decided, but the games are still not played. Remember that these games cannot result in a draw. The text NA (not available), in a space in the table, tells that the information to be put there is not yet available. /post/2019-05-28-daily_results/ Tue, 28 May 2019 23:00:00 +0000 /post/2019-05-28-daily_results/ On this page we will show the results from the games played in this group. We will also show the probabilities of home win, draw and away win for each of the games that has not yet been played. When a game has been played the obtained outcome will get a probability of 100 %. The current table for this group is based on the games that have been played. /groups/ Tue, 01 Jan 2019 00:00:00 +0000 /groups/ On this page we will show the results from the games played in this group. We will also show the probabilities of home win, draw and away win for each of the games that has not yet been played. When a game has been played the obtained outcome will get a probability of 100 %. The current table for each group is based on the games that have been played. /method/ Tue, 01 Jan 2019 00:00:00 +0000 /method/ Statistical model Consider a game between team A and team B. In our model, the number of goals scored by team A are Poisson distributed with parameter (a number) L(A,B). This means that we expect that team A will score about L(A,B) goals in a match against team B. Here \[ L(A,B)=\text{Normal number of goals}\times \frac{\text{Strength of team A}}{\text{Strength of team B}} \] “Normal number of goals” is a parameter (a number) which is interpreted as the average number of goals scored by one team in a match between to equally good teams. /podcast/ Tue, 01 Jan 2019 00:00:00 +0000 /podcast/ .column-left{ float: left; width: 50%; text-align: left; } .column-right{ float: right; width: 50%; text-align: right; } iTunes Spotify Android