Football World Cup 2006

Norsk | Norwegian Computing Center | The SAMBA group

Group A | Group B | Group C | Group D
Group E | Group F | Group G | Group H

Second round | Method

During the FIFA World Cup 2006 the Norwegian Computing Center (NR) will daily consider the chances of every team participating in the cup, based on a probability model. All calculations will be updated daily, and be available for the public on these web-pages.

Computations

The probability calculations are done by simulating ("playing" on a computer) all remaining matches numerous times. The remaining part of the World cup is "played" 2000 times. From these simulations we calculate all teams' chances to win the cup, to win their group, to reach the Second Round, etc. When the remaining matches are "played" we consider details like:

a) In the group play the order in the table are firstly given by number of points, secondly by the goal difference, thirdly by the number of goals scored, fourthly by score of direct encounter, and finally by drawing lots.

b) Matches in the second round cannot be drawn. If the match is drawn after reaching ordinary time, extra time of twice 15 minutes will be played. If the match still is draw, penalties will be taken to determine the winner.

The result of a match will depend on the strength of the two contesting countries, but there will also be an element of chance. Before the cup starts, expert opinions from Norwegian football experts (Egil "Drillo" Olsen, Lars Tjernås, Øyvind Alsaker, Vidar Davidsen, Nils Johan Semb og Karl-Petter Løken) and sports journalists in Aftenposten give the basis for the strength of each team. As the matches actually are played, the strength is updated for every team. Consequently, the strength will more and more be given by the matches actually played, and gradually less by the expert opinions given in advance.

Organisation of the pages

The web-pages include:
- The main page containing all countries' overall chances in the tournament.
- One page for the second round.
- One page for every one of the eight groups.
- One page describing the method use (including the calculation of the strength of each country).

The Norwegian Computing Center

The Norwegian Computing Center has a strong position as a research institute within statistical-mathematical modelling and computer science. The 65 employees of the institute work within applied research, on a contract basis, for industry and authorities nationally and internationally. In the Department of Image Analysis and Pattern Recognition (SAMBA) , we are 25 researchers. Together with the Department of Statistical Analysis of Natural Resource Data (SAND) we constitute one of Europe's largest and most competent groups of researchers in the field of applied statistics and image analysis.

Responsible for web-page: Magne Aldrin

The calculations are updated: juli 08, 2006 22:54

Who wins the World Cup?

Winner chances, all countries

Probability for 1.-4. position

Country	1.pos	2.pos	3.pos	4.pos
France	50.7%	49.3%	0%	0%
Italy	49.3%	50.7%	0%	0%
Germany	0%	0%	100%	0%
Portugal	0%	0%	0%	100%
England	0%	0%	0%	0%
Argentina	0%	0%	0%	0%
Brazil	0%	0%	0%	0%
Ukraine	0%	0%	0%	0%
Ecuador	0%	0%	0%	0%
Sweden	0%	0%	0%	0%
Netherlands	0%	0%	0%	0%
Mexico	0%	0%	0%	0%
Ghana	0%	0%	0%	0%
Australia	0%	0%	0%	0%
Switzerland	0%	0%	0%	0%
Spain	0%	0%	0%	0%
Costa-Rica	0%	0%	0%	0%
Poland	0%	0%	0%	0%
Paraguay	0%	0%	0%	0%
Trinidad-Tobago	0%	0%	0%	0%
Ivory-Coast	0%	0%	0%	0%
Serbia-Montenegro	0%	0%	0%	0%
Iran	0%	0%	0%	0%
Angola	0%	0%	0%	0%
USA	0%	0%	0%	0%
Czech-Republic	0%	0%	0%	0%
Croatia	0%	0%	0%	0%
Japan	0%	0%	0%	0%
Korea-Republic	0%	0%	0%	0%
Togo	0%	0%	0%	0%
Tunisia	0%	0%	0%	0%
Saudi-Arabia	0%	0%	0%	0%

Probability for reaching finals in second round

(Sorted by probability for 1. to 4. position)

Country	Final	Semi- final	Quarter- final	Round of sixteen
France	100%	100%	100%	100%
Italy	100%	100%	100%	100%
Germany	0%	100%	100%	100%
Portugal	0%	100%	100%	100%
England	0%	0%	100%	100%
Argentina	0%	0%	100%	100%
Brazil	0%	0%	100%	100%
Ukraine	0%	0%	100%	100%
Ecuador	0%	0%	0%	100%
Sweden	0%	0%	0%	100%
Netherlands	0%	0%	0%	100%
Mexico	0%	0%	0%	100%
Ghana	0%	0%	0%	100%
Australia	0%	0%	0%	100%
Switzerland	0%	0%	0%	100%
Spain	0%	0%	0%	100%
Costa-Rica	0%	0%	0%	0%
Poland	0%	0%	0%	0%
Paraguay	0%	0%	0%	0%
Trinidad-Tobago	0%	0%	0%	0%
Ivory-Coast	0%	0%	0%	0%
Serbia-Montenegro	0%	0%	0%	0%
Iran	0%	0%	0%	0%
Angola	0%	0%	0%	0%
USA	0%	0%	0%	0%
Czech-Republic	0%	0%	0%	0%
Croatia	0%	0%	0%	0%
Japan	0%	0%	0%	0%
Korea-Republic	0%	0%	0%	0%
Togo	0%	0%	0%	0%
Tunisia	0%	0%	0%	0%
Saudi-Arabia	0%	0%	0%	0%