During the FIFA World Cup 2010 the Norwegian Computing Center (NR) in cooperation with TV 2 Sporten will daily consider the chances of every team participating in the championship, based on a probability model. All calculations will be updated daily, and be available for the public here.

The probabilities are found by simulating ("playing" on a computer) all remaining matches numerous times. The remaining part of the tournament is "played" 5000 times. From these simulations, we calculate all the teams' chances to win the championship, to win their group, to reach the Second Round, etc. When the remaining matches are "played" we consider details like:

a) In the group play the order in the table is firstly given by number of points, secondly by the goal difference, thirdly by the number of goals scored, fourthly by score of direct encounter, and finally by drawing lots.

b) Matches in the second round cannot end as a draw. If the result stands as a draw after reaching ordinary time, extra time of two periods of 15 minutes shall be played. If the match still is a draw, penalties will be taken to determine the winner.

The result of a match will depend on the strength of the two contesting countries, but there will also be an element of chance. Before the tournament starts, expert opinions from 14 Norwegian football experts give the basis for the strength of each team. As the matches actually are played, the strength is updated for every team. Consequently, the strength will more and more be given by the matches actually played, and gradually less by the expert opinions given in advance.

The web-pages include:
- The main page containing all countries' overall chances in the tournament.
- One page for the second round.
- One page for each group.
- One page describing the method used (including the calculation of the strength of each country).

The Norwegian Computing Center has a strong position as a research institute within statistical-mathematical modelling and computer science. The 75 employees of the institute work within applied research, on a contract basis, for industry and authorities nationally and internationally. In the Department of Statistical Analysis, Image Analysis and Pattern Recognition (SAMBA), we are 30 researchers. Together with the Department of Statistical Analysis of Natural Resource Data (SAND) we constitute one of Europe's largest and most competent groups of researchers in the field of applied statistics and image analysis.

Who wins?

Winner chances, all countries

Probability for 1.-4. position