Who will win the 2018 FIFA World Cup?

During the 2018 FIFA World Cup the Norwegian Computing Center will daily consider the chances of every team participating in the championship, based on a probability model.


Who will win?



Who will reach the Knockout Phase?



Computations

The probabilities are found by simulating (“playing” on a computer) all remaining matches numerous times. The remaining part of the tournament is “played” 100 000 times. From these simulations, we calculate all the teams’ chances to win the championship, to win their group, to reach the second round, etc. When the remaining matches are “played” we consider details like:

  • In the group play the order in the table is firstly given the number of points. If two or more teams are equal on points, their rankings are determined by goal difference and the number of goals scored in all the group matches. If two or three teams still have equal ranks, their rankings are determined by the number of points, goal difference and number of goals scored in the matches between the teams concerned. If it is still equal between the teams, random drawing is used in the simulations.

  • Matches in the second round cannot end as a draw. If the result stands as a draw after reaching ordinary time, extra time of two periods of 15 minutes shall be played. If the match still is a draw, penalties will be taken to determine the winner.

The result of a match will depend on the strength of the two contesting countries, but there will also be an element of chance. Before the tournament starts, expert opinions from ten Norwegian football enthusiasts give the basis for the strength of each team. As the matches actually are played, the strength is updated for every team. Consequently, the strength will more and more be given by the matches actually played, and gradually less by the opinions given in advance.

Last update: Jul 11 2018 22:46